Pennsylvania is accustomed to being an important state in the presidential race.  Well, in October, we’re important.  In April, the train has usually left the station by the time the Pennsylvania primary has come.  Of course, this saves us at least a few months from having to watch non-stop political ads.  After all, who would want to watch those when we could be watching injury attorney ads?

2008 may turn out to be the year when the Pennsylvania primary actually mattered.  How, you ask?

Between now and the Republican National Convention lies the Pennsylvania primary.  If Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008 when California, New York, Illinois and much of the South and almost all of the mountain states and the midwest, passes without producing a clear frontrunner there will only be two juicy prizes left on the board: Pennsylvania and Texas.

Particularly on the Republican side, the odds are increasing with each primary and caucus that we will have what is known as a brokered convention.  Normally, the national convention is more of a coronation than a serious political event.  But, with three different candidates holding early primary wins (Mike Huckabee, John McCain and Mitt Romney)  there is no clear frontrunner.  There is also speculation that Rudy Guiliani may win Florida (home to many retired New Yorkers) and that dark horse Ron Paul could score an upset in Nevada (where he was the only candidate campaigning there for the last two months).

And, because Pennsylvania’s primary is so late, taking place April 22 (Texas is in March) there would be a long and expensive build-up to any primary.  It would be the last, best chance for the candidates to score a knockout blow and go into the convention as a clear nominee.

In other words, it could actually be worse than what we endure as a so-called swing state between August and the beginning of November.   With any luck, some horse-trading will occur early.  And if no one concedes after Texas, Pennsylvania would get the chance to mean something in the process.

Should PA not dictate a winner, we would get the first brokered convention since the modern primary system was implemented in 1972.  The closest America has come to a brokered convention was 1976, when the Republican nomination of Gerald Ford was contested by Ronald Reagan. While history vindicated Reagan’s legacy, the 1976 convention was not his.  Ford won in the first round of delegate voting.

Prior to 1972, the brokered convention was the norm.  Presidential candidates were picked in smoke-filled rooms.  However, the outcry during the 1968 Democratic convention left the system in need of repair.

In 2008, the Democratic side appears much less likely to go to a brokered convention.  PA donkeys will likely sit out another meaningless primary.  Pennsylvania does not have an open primary, so there will be no party crossing shenanigans.

It’s an unlikely scenario, but the 2008 election already is pretty unlikely.  America already stands a statistically high chance of electing a woman, a black American, an Italian-America, a Mormon or a president older than Ronald Reagan was in 1984.  All of those possibilities are unprecedented.

A meaningful Pennsylvania primary  would be too.